Crypto Runway Calculator
Will Your Crypto Investment Actually Last? Free Monte Carlo survival simulator for Bitcoin, Ethereum & altcoin portfolios.
Run Your Simulation
Enter your numbers below. Everything runs instantly in your browser — no signup, no wallet connection, no data sent anywhere.
How the Simulation Works
Most crypto calculators assume a single fixed growth rate, which flattens out the wild swings that actually define cryptocurrency markets. The Crypto Runway Calculator instead models four distinct market phases tied to Bitcoin's roughly four-year halving cycle, each carrying its own historical mean return and volatility:
| Phase | Typical Behavior | Modeled Volatility |
|---|---|---|
| Post-Halving Expansion | Strong upward momentum following supply-shock events | High mean, high variance |
| Peak / Distribution | Euphoric late-cycle trading, frequently followed by sharp reversal | Wide variance, elevated crash risk |
| Contraction (Bear) | Sustained drawdowns, sometimes exceeding 70-80% peak-to-trough | Strongly negative mean |
| Accumulation / Basing | Sideways consolidation before the next cycle begins | Lower variance, modest drift |
Each simulated year is randomly assigned a phase using a Box-Muller normal distribution around that phase's historical parameters, and the tool randomizes which phase your simulation starts in — because nobody knows in advance exactly where the market will sit in its cycle relative to your personal timeline. Running this 1,000 times produces a distribution of outcomes rather than one falsely precise number, which is the same statistical approach used in professional Monte Carlo retirement planning, adapted specifically for crypto.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Crypto Runway Calculator?
The Crypto Runway Calculator is a free Monte Carlo simulation tool that estimates how long a cryptocurrency investment will last once you start drawing income from it. It runs 1,000 randomized simulations using crypto-specific halving-cycle volatility patterns (not generic stock-market assumptions) and reports a success probability, a median outcome, and a worst-case (10th percentile) outcome.
How is this different from a normal crypto profit calculator?
Standard crypto calculators (like those used for tax reporting) answer a single static question: buy price vs. sell price. The Crypto Runway Calculator instead models an entire investment lifetime — years of accumulation followed by years of withdrawals — across 1,000 randomized future paths, so you see a range of outcomes and a probability of running out of money, not just one number.
What data does the simulation use?
The model uses documented Bitcoin market-cycle behavior tied to the roughly four-year halving schedule: a post-halving expansion phase, a blow-off/peak phase, a contraction (bear) phase, and an accumulation (basing) phase, each with its own historical mean-return and volatility range. Each simulated year is randomly assigned a phase-consistent return using a normal (Box-Muller) distribution, and the phase order is randomized per simulation to avoid assuming we know exactly where the market is in its cycle.
Is a 100% success rate possible with crypto?
Rarely, and that is the point. Cryptocurrency's historical volatility is far higher than stocks or bonds, so success rates in the 70-90% range are common even with conservative withdrawal rates. If your result shows a low success rate, the tool is telling you your withdrawal amount, time horizon, or allocation carries meaningful risk of depletion.
What is sequence of returns risk?
Sequence of returns risk is the danger that a bad run of returns early in your withdrawal period can permanently damage a portfolio, even if the long-run average return looks fine. Because crypto's worst drawdowns can exceed 70-80% in a single bear phase, sequence risk is especially important to understand before relying on a crypto portfolio for income.
Should I put my entire retirement in cryptocurrency?
This tool does not recommend allocations. Most financial planners view cryptocurrency as a high-volatility satellite position rather than a core holding, given its short trading history and extreme drawdowns. Use the allocation presets to compare a Bitcoin-heavy scenario against a more diversified one and see how the success rate changes.
Is the Crypto Runway Calculator free to use?
Yes, the calculator is completely free, requires no signup, no wallet connection, and no account. All calculations run in your browser.
Does the tool connect to my wallet or exchange?
No. Unlike portfolio trackers, this tool never asks for wallet addresses, API keys, or exchange logins. You simply enter hypothetical numbers to run a simulation.
50 Wild Facts About Cryptocurrency
A running list of surprising, data-backed facts about Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the wider crypto ecosystem. The list below refreshes its order automatically — scroll back up anytime to run another simulation, or subscribe above for more like this.
- Bitcoin's total supply is hard-capped at 21 million coins, a limit written directly into its source code since 2009.
- The Bitcoin halving cuts the block reward roughly every four years (every 210,000 blocks), and has occurred in 2012, 2016, 2020, and 2024.
- It is estimated that between 3-4 million bitcoin are permanently lost due to forgotten keys, discarded hard drives, or sending to invalid addresses.
- The first real-world Bitcoin transaction was 10,000 BTC for two pizzas in 2010, an event now commemorated annually as 'Bitcoin Pizza Day.'
- Ethereum's 2022 'Merge' shifted the network from proof-of-work to proof-of-stake, cutting its energy consumption by an estimated 99.9%.
- There are more than 20,000 distinct cryptocurrencies tracked across major aggregator sites, though the vast majority have negligible trading volume.
- A single Bitcoin block is mined roughly every 10 minutes, regardless of how much computing power is competing to solve it, due to automatic difficulty adjustment.
- El Salvador became the first country to adopt Bitcoin as legal tender in September 2021.
- The Ethereum blockchain processes smart contracts, meaning code executes automatically without a third party — the basis of most decentralized finance (DeFi).
- The largest single-day cryptocurrency market cap swing on record wiped out and later restored hundreds of billions of dollars within the same week.
- Satoshi Nakamoto, Bitcoin's pseudonymous creator, has never been definitively identified and has not moved the estimated 1 million BTC linked to the address cluster believed to be theirs.
- Dogecoin was created in 2013 as a joke based on the 'Doge' meme and has no fixed maximum supply, unlike Bitcoin.
- A 51% attack refers to a scenario where a single entity controls the majority of a blockchain's mining or staking power, theoretically allowing double-spending.
- Cryptocurrency markets trade 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, with no centralized closing bell, unlike traditional stock exchanges.
- The Lightning Network is a 'layer 2' protocol built on top of Bitcoin designed to enable near-instant, low-fee transactions.
- NFTs (non-fungible tokens) use the same blockchain technology as cryptocurrencies but represent unique, non-interchangeable digital assets rather than currency units.
- The word 'HODL' originated from a 2013 typo of 'hold' in a Bitcoin forum post titled 'I AM HODLING.'
- Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies designed to maintain a steady value, typically pegged 1:1 to the US dollar, and are widely used to move funds between exchanges without volatility exposure.
- The Mt. Gox exchange collapse in 2014 resulted in the loss of roughly 850,000 bitcoin, one of the largest security failures in crypto history.
- Bitcoin mining difficulty adjusts approximately every two weeks to keep block times close to the target 10-minute average.
- Wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC) allows Bitcoin's value to be represented and used on the Ethereum blockchain and its DeFi applications.
- Some countries, including China, have banned cryptocurrency trading and mining outright, while others actively court crypto businesses with favorable tax regimes.
- The total combined market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies has, at peak periods, exceeded $3 trillion.
- A cold wallet stores private keys completely offline, while a hot wallet remains connected to the internet — a key distinction for security-conscious holders.
- Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin proposed the network in a 2013 whitepaper when he was 19 years old.
- The largest confirmed single Bitcoin transaction fee ever paid was worth millions of dollars at the time, later attributed to human error rather than intent.
- Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) are government-issued digital currencies distinct from decentralized cryptocurrencies, and dozens of countries have piloted them.
- Bitcoin's public ledger, the blockchain, has recorded every transaction since the genesis block on January 3, 2009.
- Crypto 'gas fees' on Ethereum are paid in a unit called gwei, a fraction of one ether, and fluctuate based on network congestion.
- The Bitcoin genesis block contains an embedded newspaper headline referencing a bank bailout, widely interpreted as commentary on the traditional financial system.
- Some analysts categorize crypto market cycles into four broad phases: accumulation, markup (bull), distribution, and markdown (bear) — a structure echoed in this site's simulation model.
- Proof-of-stake blockchains let holders 'stake' coins to help validate transactions in exchange for rewards, replacing the energy-intensive mining used in proof-of-work systems.
- A 'whale' in crypto terminology refers to an individual or entity holding a large enough position to meaningfully move market prices with a single trade.
- The SEC has classified some cryptocurrencies as securities in enforcement actions while treating others, like Bitcoin, differently — an area of ongoing legal debate.
- Multi-signature ('multisig') wallets require more than one private key to authorize a transaction, commonly used by exchanges and DAOs for added security.
- The term 'altcoin' refers to any cryptocurrency other than Bitcoin, encompassing everything from Ethereum to thousands of smaller projects.
- Bitcoin's block size limit was a subject of the 2017 'Blocksize War,' which ultimately led to the creation of Bitcoin Cash as a separate chain.
- Some artists and museums have sold physical artwork bundled with NFTs to prove provenance and ownership history on-chain.
- The Ethereum network processes several million transactions per day across its base layer and layer-2 rollups combined.
- Cryptocurrency 'airdrops' distribute free tokens to existing wallet holders, often used by new projects to bootstrap a user base.
- A DAO (Decentralized Autonomous Organization) is governed by code and token-holder votes rather than a traditional corporate hierarchy.
- The largest verified crypto exchange hacks have resulted in combined losses estimated in the billions of dollars industry-wide.
- Some Bitcoin mining operations intentionally locate near stranded natural gas or hydroelectric sites to use otherwise-wasted or excess energy.
- A 'rug pull' describes a scam where developers abandon a project and abscond with investor funds, most common among low-liquidity tokens.
- The concept of 'sats' (satoshis) refers to the smallest unit of Bitcoin — one hundred millionth of a single BTC.
- Institutional Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) began trading in the United States in January 2024, opening crypto exposure to traditional brokerage accounts.
- Crypto winters — extended bear markets — have historically lasted between one and two years before the next market cycle began.
- The energy used by the Bitcoin network has been compared, in various studies, to the annual electricity consumption of mid-sized countries, though estimates vary widely by methodology.
- Ethereum's smart contracts power decentralized exchanges (DEXs), which let users trade tokens directly from their own wallets without a centralized intermediary.
- A hardware wallet stores private keys on a dedicated offline device and is widely regarded as one of the most secure ways to hold cryptocurrency long-term.